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TDH=Triple Digit Heat…. Some say it should mean “Too Darned Hot”. One way or another, Alabama will bake under the summer sun again today with a high around 100 degrees in most communities. Birmingham has reached 100 degrees on 12 days this summer, and today should make day 13. Looks like tomorrow will make 14 as the upper air high sits right over us. That warm air aloft will also keep the lid on developing showers, and we will remain dry and dusty for the next 48 hours.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: As the upper air high breaks down, we will slowly ramp up the chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, and back down the intensity of the afternoon heat. The tropical wave moving through the Bahamas, the Felix wanna-be, will move across the Florida peninsula by Friday, and on into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. The GFS is hinting at a general increase in moisture levels here from this wave, and by Sunday and Monday the model is portraying a pretty decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms across Alabama. It even suggests a high of only 90 degrees on Sunday; that might be a little to low, but the idea is good based on the increase in clouds and showers.
NEXT WEEK: A nice pool of moisture is centered across Alabama for much of next week, and with the lack of a good capping inversion you have to figure that every day will offer at least scattered showers and storms. At the end of next week, The GFS continues to advertise a nice, autumn-like upper trough over the eastern part of North America, which will push a strong cold front down this way with a good chance of showers and storms, followed by cooler air. As Bob Dylan would say, the times are a changin’. Sure sounds good to me.
LONG RANGE: As we get into September the GFS continues the idea of a mean trough over the eastern U.S, which would mean some pretty decent rain opportunities from time to time, and shots of cooler air as well. Bring it on.
TROPICS: Dean’s second landfall will come this morning along the central Mexican coast, well to the south of Brownsville, Texas. Dangerous flooding and mudslides will be the primary problem this time. Some moisture from Dean might work up into the Southwest U.S. by the weekend, bringing an increase in the number of showers and storms to places like Arizona and New Mexico. And, as mentioned above, the wave over the Bahamas is having a hard time getting its act together due to harsh upper air winds.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day and STAY COOL.
