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Okay, I’ll admit it! My forecast yesterday was not the best! Those clouds really held tough and the cold air advection was stronger than I thought it would be. Those two combined to keep temperatures in the 40s for a rather brisk day. But I think we’re headed for a much better day today with temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 50s across northern and central Alabama. But there will be an upper level disturbance passing just north of the state that will produce clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles this morning. But I think there will be an over abundance of sunshine for the afternoon. I’m going to try to get out for a walk around the neighborhood, too.
Monday will be a transition day and nicely warm with highs well into the 60s. Clouds will increase late in the day and overnight with the possibility of rain after midnight. Models continue to have timing differences and I think the GFS is a tad too fast. The weather should be progressing across Central Alabama during the morning and early afternoon and be well out of here by Tuesday evening. A deep trough in the upper atmosphere will usher in another round of cold temperatures.
We won’t see much temperature change on Tuesday with clouds and the arrival of the cold front, but the cold air really takes over during the evening. Wednesday morning will see lows below freezing – around 30 or so – and I don’t expect to get out of the 40s during the afternoon – sounds a bit like yesterday. With a surface high stomping on us Thursday morning, we will have good radiational cooling so I expect a bunch of readings in the mid and upper 20s.
Thursday and early Friday we’ll be dry as we are between systems. The next rain chances are Friday late and early Saturday. But this system is forecast to move by quickly paving the way for another great Sunday.
As we look out to the edge of voodoo country, the GFS has sure captured my attention with a deep trough over the Central US and a very strong surface low in the vicinity of Tupelo. This is a long way out but certainly has the look of a severe weather situation. This will be one to watch carefully.
Long range progs continue to emphasize an active pattern with a new weather system every three to four days. This is welcome because we’ve been getting good rain events and we need some more. Rainfall totals for 2008 now place Central Alabama at or slightly above the expected values, so now we need to bank some excess to overcome the tremendous deficit of last year.
STORM ALERT 2008: Your last chance to see our annual severe weather awareness show is coming up Tuesday night of next week. We will be at Bethel Baptist Church in Moody at 7:00 pm Tuesday. Their church building was destroyed by a tornado April 8, 1998, and the April 8th tornado is a big part of our show this year. The memories are so vivid that it is hard to believe it has been ten years.
SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase a top of the line Midland NOAA Weather Radio at any Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Get more information here.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
Have a great Sunday. God bless.
-Brian-
