Tropical Depression 16 is south of Haiti this morning.
It should become Tropical Storm Noel later today.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for SW Haiti. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
The future track of the hurricane is certain in a general sense, with it headed toward a recurvature over the Bahamas. But the devil is in the details. Will it stay further south of Cuba, or turn more northwestward through the pass between Cuba and Hispaniola. The official track carries it about 150 miles southeast of the Keys and Miami area.
It is expected to become a hurricane at some point before the Bahamas.
Two recon missions are planned for later today, with the first fixes around noon.
Scroll down for Dr. Peters usual fine morning map discussion.
