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OVERNIGHT STORMS: First off, thanks to J.B. for handling the blog, and Ashley B for staffing the ABC 33/40 Weather Office overnight, watching the band of storms dropping south through our state. As expected, there was no real organized severe weather around here, but you can’t keep your eye off the radar with this kind of airmass in place this time of the year. I do note the NWS in Huntsville issued a tornado warning for Lawrence County around 1:30, but there was no damage to my knowledge. Seems like rain amounts so far have been in the 1/2 to 1 inch range; my bucket in North Shelby County is showing 0.55″.
Right now the strongest storms are over Clay and Randolph Counties of East Alabama; we still have lingering light rain as far north as Fayette, Jasper, and Oneonta. The rain will end this morning, and there is still a chance the sun peaks out later today as drier air tries to slip in from the north. The dewpoint in Haleyville has dropped to 58, while Birmingham’s dewpoint is still in the low 70s at 5:00.
REST OF THE WEEK: Tomorrow will be considerably warmer as an upper ridge noses in from the south; a good chance we reach the low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. The warm air aloft should prevent showers from forming on a widespread basis, and our forecast has just an outside risk of an afternoon shower. We do note the WRF is a little more aggressive with showers tomorrow due to a weaker ridge.
Yet another band of showers should begin to develop Friday afternoon in advance of a strong upper trough and surface front. Friday night still looks wet with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms as the front gets closer; you will need the rain gear for the high school football games Friday night; hopefully the heavier stuff arrives after the games are over.
THE WEEKEND: The 00Z GFS now stalls the front out near a Hamilton-Huntsville line Saturday, meaning the day looks fairly wet. The best chance of showers and storms for Northwest Alabama will come during the morning, but it now looks like rain and storms could linger through the day for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, and we will trend that way in our forecast. But, by Sunday the front should sag south to near Montgomery, and much of North Alabama should be dry Sunday with the showers mostly over the southern counties of the state.
NEXT WEEK: This is a very complex pattern, so forecast confidence is low, but the 00Z GFS now shows a dry look for most of Alabama Monday through Wednesday with mild days and cool nights. Not sure we can go three dry days in a row with this setup, but at least there is hope.
NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: This is the big weekend in Gulf Shores; you will have to dodge occasional showers and storms Friday through Sunday, with highs mostly in the low 80s along the immediate coast. The sun might peek out at times, but no doubt the weather will be unsettled on the coast this weekend. BIG CHILL UP NORTH: Amazingly cold air for early October will cross from Canada down into the northern U.S. in coming days. In Cutbank, Montana, the forecast high is only 20 degrees, followed by a low of 6 degrees Saturday morning. And, there should be a nice snow cover with periods of snow likely each day for the rest of the week.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Henri is packing sustained winds of 50 mph, and is located a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. This thing will slow down, and wind down by Friday as strong winds aloft take over. It should dissipate Friday night north of the Virgin Islands, and it is no threat to land. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.
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I will be out at Trussville Middle School this morning doing a weather program; I will be back in the office by early afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
