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RIGHT NOW: While we are forecasting mostly dry weather for the next few days, we have to note we have some lingering light rain this morning over the eastern half of the state. This activity should dissipate soon, and most communities will enjoy a partly sunny sky today with a high up in the mid 80s, a little closer to where we should be in early September.
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: While we can’t completely rule out a shower somewhere, mostly dry weather is expected tomorrow and Saturday, with highs in the mid 80s. Partly sunny days, mostly fair nights. Sunday, moisture levels will increase, and showers are possible, especially over the southern half of the state. For now we will mention only a small risk of a shower around here.
NEXT WEEK: The chance of rain will increase statewide on Labor Day with deeper moisture and an approaching short wave. Showers look likely on Tuesday and Wednesday as well as moisture hangs around. Daytime temperatures will trend downward for the first half of next week with clouds and showers.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Looks like excellent conditions for high school football games across Alabama tonight and tomorrow night. The sky will be mostly clear, with a kickoff temperature near 80 degrees, falling into the 70s during the game. For Saturday night’s Auburn-Louisiana Tech game at Jordan-Hare Stadium, the sky will be mostly clear with a kickoff temperature close to 80 (6:00 p.m.), with temperatures dropping into the mid 70s by the second half. Needless to say, rain won’t be an issue for the Alabama-Virginia Tech game in Atlanta Saturday night since the game is inside the Georgia Dome, but outside we expect a clear sky and no significant chance of rain. UAB will host Rice Saturday afternoon at Legion Field (3:00 kickoff); the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 85 degrees, falling to near 80 by the end of the game.
TROPICAL WEATHER: Tropical Storm Erika has become quite a mystery lady. She is not behaving as expected; the system has been moving mostly westward, well to the south of guidance. And, no strengthening due to dry air surrounding the system and increasing upper air winds over the system. The official track from NHC shows dissipation by Sunday near the Bahamas, but watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see a number of dynamic models ramp this thing up to a hurricane by Sunday. And, with the lack of a northward component of motion, now we have some analogs that do get this thing into the Gulf of Mexico.
The 00Z GFS shows Erika as a tropical wave reaching the far Southeast Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, but it is forced northeast by yet another strong upper trough over the eastern U.S. that develops by the end of next week.
Like I say, quite a mystery woman. We will be watching with interest, but considering the upper air pattern this summer, if Erika hangs on I think it turns northeast before reaching 80W. We will see.
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I will be speaking at the Cullman Rotary Club at midday today… then back to the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
