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To borrow a phrase from Mr. James Spann, “it is going to get cold enough to slap yo mama!” It looks like the Arctic gates will be thrown wide open for some of the coldest air we’ve seen this Fall. In fact, this will be the coldest air we’ve seen in Central Alabama since about February 13th when the low at the Birmingham airport reached 21.
But for today, one more mild day as a front makes its way across the Southeast from northwest to southeast. Moisture according to the sounding at the Shelby County Airport last night was limited, so while we will see clouds, the amount of showers will be isolated at best with most of us staying dry. Highs today should top out around the lower 60s with some sunshine mixed in with the clouds.
The cold air does not blast in here but rather comes in a series of reinforcing short waves that will sharpen the trough over the eastern half of the country. The one today leads the way followed by one on Monday that really sets a strong northwesterly flow pattern. That one today is also responsible for a wide band of winter weather advisories stretching all the way from Wisconsin to northwestern North Carolina. Many locations in that band will see snow of 1 to 5 inches.
By Tuesday and Wednesday morning, we will see temperatures across Central Alabama plunge to near the 20 degree mark. In fact, some spots will likely see morning lows in the teens – from 15 to 19 degrees – which will blanket Central Alabama with a hard freeze.
It’s interesting to note that the presence of a strong short wave around the Texas Panhandle on Tuesday at midday. This short wave moves quickly across the northern Gulf Coast area on Wednesday, and the GFS does very little with this. The main reason is probably the lack of moisture, however, with cold air in place at the surface, this little short wave could create some winter mischief. I am NOT saying that we’ll have a winter weather event, but I am saying we need to watch how this evolves in future model runs.
As the upper air pattern moderates slowly, we should see the amplitude of the northwesterly flow become less sharp allowing temperatures to recover somewhat. By Friday and Saturday we should once again see highs in the lower 50s. But even those values will be 3 to 5 degrees below typical early December highs. Lows should also moderate and stay above freezing.
Except for the rain chances today, the week ahead looks dry and cold! Looking further afield, the GFS maintains a very active pattern that continues to look cold with another chill down around the 13th and again around the 19th.
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Great day for a parade and there are lots of Christmas parades across the area. One of those is in Helena where I live. I’m always excited about the community event and looking forward to emceeing the various parade entries. If you have a chance, come join us at 1:30 pm for the parade. And if you should need to travel in Helena, be aware that the 261 highway will be closed for the parade. The parade runs from Crows Corner at the Publix to Old Town Helena. Have a great day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.
