In the world of meteorologists…a “forecast bust” is when one misses the forecast by a large margin. This is not a term that I, nor even J.B., made up. It has been in refereed journal articles, NWS notes, numerous forecast discussions, and even seminars at NCEP.
My prediction of a big cold front followed by highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s on Monday was a “forecast bust”. I followed 4 consecutive GFS model outputs showing the cold front, posted on the blog, then on the next run it was gone! That low Sunday night of 45 turned quickly into 65!
But, as James mentions in the video today, cooler air will come in next week. We may see a few showers as the cold front comes in Tuesday, then lows late next week should drop to near 50, with highs only in the upper 70s. For this one to be wrong, the GFS, Canadian GEM, and European models will ALL have to be wrong.
