The center of tropical depression ten is east of Mobile tonight. The actual center is near Milton, Florida.
The NWS is getting ready to issue a new tornado watch for West and Southwest Alabama.
Here is the graphic and text from the Mesoscale Discussion.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007
AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL AND SRN AL…WRN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 681…
VALID 220157Z – 220330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 681 CONTINUES.
THE TORNADO THREAT WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 SHOULD GRADUALLY
SPREAD NWWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL AL. ORGANIZATION AROUND THE SYSTEM
AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO CONTINUE A
TORNADO THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF
MOBILE AL AND DISTINCT SPIRAL BANDING IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS SE
AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SHOWS A
POCKET OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 2.25 INCHES JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTING RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTER LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES SHOWN ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH
FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS AS THE RAINBANDS MOVE NWWD
INTO CNTRL AND WRN AL OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL CONFLUENCE BANDS JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ACROSS SE AL APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING AND
THESE RAINBANDS SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
STORMS.
..BROYLES.. 09/22/2007
ATTN…WFO…BMX…MOB…JAN…
33678731 33448802 32458843 31088823 30648749 31008667
32408635 33368664
Just got this message from the NWS BMX…
Hi everyone, all the parameters point to a continued threat of tornadoes…so the current watch will remain as is…even though current activity is down. any shower that pops up in the watch area will have the potential to spin and produce a tornado. you may mention that very little to no lightning activity has been indicated with the showers. therefore…you may hear the area moving toward you. as for a watch later…the band currently across troy and an additional band closer to the center of circulation will rotate toward south central alabama overnight. therefore…a new watch may become necessary that would cover parts of south central and west central alabama. td 10 has moved inland near fort walton and will continue moving west northwest.
