AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL/SRN AL…SERN MS…SERN LA
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 070550Z – 070615Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…95 PERCENT
SUMMARY…A NEW TORNADO WATCH REPLACING TORNADO WATCH 65 WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION…SLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A SFC CYCLONE ANALYZED SW OF
JACKSON MS METRO WILL DRIVE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR/MARGINAL BUOYANCY
NWD INTO ACROSS CNTRL AL. THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ENCOURAGE THE EWD/ENEWD SPREAD OF ONGOING SVR THREAT ACROSS CNTRL MS
TO S-CNTRL LA. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A 60-KT LLJ IS SUSTAINED. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL FOSTER A TORNADO THREAT WITH
SEMI-DISCRETE/QLCS CONVECTIVE MODES. THE TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS…WARRANTING SUBSEQUENT TORNADO
WATCH ISSUANCE.
