Here is the latest thinking from the Storm Prediction Center…
It basically says that the line of strong storms is moving rapidly eastward tonight and will be into Alabama between 3 a.m. and 6 a.m.
Large hail and the potential for damaging winds will be the main threats, although an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
The current severe thunderstorm watch will be extended before midnight, and could reach into Alabama.
Dew points are coming up…53F at Birmingham…55F at Calera, Tuscaloosa and Columbus MS…60F at Meridian. As this continues, storms will have the opportunity to become more severe.
Stay alert to weather bulletins overnight…
ACUS11 KWNS 260520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260520
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-260645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED…SOUTHEAST AR AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO MS/AL
CONCERNING…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75…
VALID 260520Z – 260645Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75 CONTINUES.
VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75 CONTINUES UNTIL 08Z.
AN ADDITIONAL AND/OR REPLACEMENT WATCH IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MS/AL AND PERHAPS NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS…PERHAPS BY AROUND 06Z-0630Z.
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING…FROM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHWEST MS BORDER INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST LA AS OF 05Z. WHILE STORMS HAVE BEEN MAINLY ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHERN AR INTO NORTHWEST MS THUS FAR…AN INCREASING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET /45-55 KT/ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE/POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY STEADILY OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS THROUGH 06Z-09Z…AND EVENTUALLY INTO AL BY AROUND 09Z-12Z AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER 60S F.
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL…A DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT MAY INCREASE ACCORDINGLY PER THE LINEAR ORGANIZATION/WEAKENING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. HOWEVER…AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS…ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND DISTINCT PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION…WHICH WILL BE SAMPLED/EVALUATED PER A FORTHCOMING SPECIAL 06Z RAOB FROM JACKSON MS.
.GUYER.. 02/26/2008
