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On the one hand, not much has changed in the forecast. But on the other hand, there appear to be some major changes. After a rather cloudy, dull day which featured just a bit of light rain for the northwest corner of the state and mild condition, we should see some sunshine along with temperatures at levels about 10 to 12 degrees warmer than we normally expect to see in early January. Our typical high for January 6th is 53 and we are forecasting a high of 64 to 66 across Central Alabama.
But the real news to me is that we have rain coming – twice!! Just because we reset the rainfall counter on January 1 does not mean that we erased the deficit for 2007 which was in the neighborhood of two feet. So we still desperately need the rain. And there are two rain events in the upcoming week. The first is expected to arrive Tuesday as an upper level trough comes out of the southern Rockies with a surface low running across the mid-Mississippi River valley. The Storm Prediction Center has also outlooked a sliver of West Central Alabama for the possibility of severe weather on Tuesday which also includes just about the whole state of Mississippi. As we’ve seen a number of times over the last several weeks, the extent of severe weather will depend on how far north the really unstable air surges. I think there is a pretty good possibility for severe storms into the nighttime hours Tuesday, but that also means that we’ll be dealing with the stablizing effect of nighttime. Surface dew points on the GFS MOS are only expected to reach the upper 50s, so it could be marginal for severe weather. But the good news is the rain. HPC is projecting a half inch around Clanton to over one inch in the Tennessee River Valley.
Wednesday should be rain free as we find ourselves between systems. But the second system arrives on Thursday, and it promises to bring even more rain. While HPC suggests two to two and a half inches for Central Alabama, I’m just a tad too conservative to go quite that high. I think that rainfall estimates have been too high for a while, so I’m shaving my forecast back to amounts of one to one and a half inches. My forecast won’t stop me from hoping for larger amounts, though.
The end of the week turns dry as we direct our attention to the BIG system that has for several days been providing some hope for winter weather in the Southeast. But the latest run of the GFS seems to be dashing our hopes for a really major winter event. Instead of a Gulf low in nearly ideal position, the surface low forms in the northwest Gulf and travels across North Alabama with a position near Knoxville on Sunday afternoon. I’m not surprised that the GFS has changed and it may change again since we’re still on the border of voodoo land. Under the current GFS solution, it would be a rain changing to snow situation which does not typically give Central Alabama significant snow events. These events tend to be low snow amounts since the cold air arrives as the atmosphere is drying. This solution also suggests light snow or snow flurries for about 36 hours or so with strong wraparound moisture from the surface low. Needless to say it will be the focus of lots of attention for the next week.
In the longer range, the GFS suggests another brutally cold spell for the Southeast around January 19th as the overall pattern remains very active.
I appreciate you tuning in to the Weather Xtreme Video. James will be back with the next update bright and early tomorrow morning. I’ll be filling in for Ashley tonight on the 5 and 10 pm newscasts so hope you can join ABC 3340 then. Have a great Sunday and God bless.
-Brian-
