As expected, cloudiness is increasing across Alabama.
An area of light rain was over Northwest Alabama. Light rain was reported at Haleyville’s Posey Airport with a temperature of 40F. The main activity was over Colbert, Lauderdale and Lawrence Counties.
The lower levels of the atmosphere over Alabama are dry with dewpoints in the 20s to near 30.
To the west, light rain showers are scattered across Mississippi, but McComb was the only surface station reporting precipitation.
The main rain area now covers the eastern half of Texas and the western half of Louisiana.
Our developing surface low was just off the middle Texas Coast. Lots of lightning over the Gulf, and over the upper Texas Coast.
MODEL COMPS:
The morning run of the GFS shows showers developing across the northern half of the state with heavier rain developing over the Tennessee Valley tonight. The good news is that it only shows light showers over Southeast Alabama, meaning Brian’s prediction about the rain remaining light during the game may come true. Moderate rain will spread into Central Alabama overnight. An area of heavy rain and some storms will develop along and south of I-59 during the day tomorrow along the warm front. The surface low will move onto the Louisiana coast tomorrow afternoon and be near Natchez, Mississippi by sundown tomorrow night. It will move north northeast overnight into NW Mississippi by midnight and into western Tennessee. As it does, a cold front will push toward western Alabama. Thunderstorms will spread into western sections overnight, and some of those could be strong to severe, although chances will be much better over Southwest Alabama. Instability will be very limited, but the dynamics could overcome this over Central Alabama and we can’t rule out a strong to severe storm.
The GFS is less bullish on the Thursday system now.
The morning run of the NAM keeps us mainly dry until tomorrow morning, then breaks the rain out gradually through the day and into the overnight with the best rain chances Monday. I am discounting this solution in favor of the GFS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS
North Alabama should see at least an inch of rain between now and Monday night. Central sections will see 1 to 2 inches with higher amounts over Southwest Alabama, where 2 to 3 inches may fall.
