As we approach the noon hour on this mild Saturday, some patches of light rain were occurring south of Demopolis over parts of Clarke, Choctaw, and Washington counties. Some of the rain was probably not reaching the ground due to a relatively dry layer around 10,000 feet according to the Birmingham sounding.
And the Storm Prediction Center or SPC has updated the Day 2 outlook which shifts the slight risk area a bit further north. The slight risk area now includes practically all of Alabama with the exception of the extreme northwest portion around Muscle Shoals, Florence, Waterloo, and Tuscumbia.
I think there is still a question as to how far north the greatest instability will be. The latest GFS MOS guidance suggests afternoon dew points on Sunday in the mid 50s. That is marginally sufficient but it raise my confidence level if they were projected to reach 60 or so. Still, the models usually do not pick up on the small scale features, so there is still a lot to watch.
With a tad over 40 years experience in the field of weather, I’ve learned never (should I say NEVER) underestimate the power of nature to recover in these situations. That’s why all the Blog posters here are watchful as we try to figure out what the atmosphere will do.
-Brian-
