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LOTS OF RAIN: Widespread covers most of Alabama this morning, but we note the rain has ended down in the southwest part of the state. My rain bucket in North Shelby County shows 1.54″ since it started last night… oddly enough the heaviest rain right now is over Northwest Alabama, a little out of phase with model guidance, which has suggested the heaviest rain over the eastern side of the state. Very difficult to forecast rain placement with a tropical system going through a change of direction, and a total change of character as it becomes a mid-latitude system. Our long 8 day dry spell really saved us from any serious flooding issues, but the NWS continues a flash flood watch for most of the state to cover any localized flooding problems that might develop. Take a deep breath and plan on taking some extra time to get to work this morning. Pretty messy out there. We figure most places will wind up with 2 to 4 inches of rain by the time it ends later today. Isolated amounts over 5 inches are possible.
ON THE MAPS: The low pressure area, which represents the center of Ida, is still hanging around the mouth of Mobile Bay. It really doesn’t make much sense to focus on the low pressure center now with all of the rain well removed from that spot. And, certainly this is no classic tropical storm anymore. The remnant low will move east, and then southeast toward Tampa Bay during the next 24 hours. The rain will end across the state later today, with some lingering rain still possible tonight over on the eastern side.
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The sky will become mostly sunny tomorrow as dry air returns, and we should be in great shape Thursday through the weekend with mostly sunny mild days and clear cool nights. Highs will be in the 60s tomorrow and Thursday, close to 70 Friday, and in the low 70s Saturday and Sunday. Morning lows will be generally in the 40s. Yet another fantastic weekend for football or anything else.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 06Z GFS shows a strong short wave moving through Monday, with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Drier air returns for the middle of next week. And, around November 25, the GFS is all of a sudden showing a whopper of a phased upper trough that would bring some active storms followed by sharply colder weather. But, that is all voodoo, as you know.
SEVEN YEARS AGO TODAY: The Veteran’s Day tornado outbreak in Alabama… 11 tornadoes touched down killing 12 people. The outbreak featured two long track tornadoes, with parallel tracks. The longest track was 72 miles; that F3 tornado was responsible 7 deaths across Walker County. The other long track tornado roared through Carbon Hill with extensive damage.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on THIS Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will post the show notes on this week’s new episode shortly.
I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day and stay dry!
