This is written by Jim Stefkovich, the meteorologist in charge of the Birmingham National Weather Service office…
REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1134 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008
.UPDATE…MESOSCALE UPDATE.
MESOSCALE FORECAST 16Z THROUGH 00Z.
SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM NW AL TO CENTRAL MS AT 16Z WILL REMAIN
INTACT AS IT MOVES THROUGH REMAINDER OF AL DURING AFTERNOON. SHEAR
ACROSS CENTRAL AL WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS
WITHIN LINE…AND ANTICIPATE A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF MAIN LINE. KJAN ISSUED A 15Z SOUNDING…WHICH COMPARED TO
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A CAPPING INVERSION AT 850 MB HAD BEEN
ERASED…BUT WARMER AIR WAS INCREASING IN THE MID LEVELS (AROUND
600 MB) WHICH HAD INCREASED THE TEMP BY 6 DEGREES C. STILL…NOT
ENOUGH WARM AIR TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION…BUT PLENTY OF
CAPE AVAILABLE TO AGREE WITH SPC THAT ISOLATED
TORNADOES…INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF LONG TRACKS…ARE POSSIBLE.
ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN WESTERN AL TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF LINE…AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RAPID
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 80S ARE REACHED. GOOD NEWS IS WITH WARM INTRUSION IN MID
LEVELS…ARE NOT EXPECTED REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND SQUALL LINE.
STEFKOVICH
