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TURNING WET: Scroll down below for J.B.’s play by play on the line of storms that moved through our state after midnight; there was some wind damage up around Muscle Shoals between 10:00 and 11:00 last night, but the line weakened by the time it reached this part of the state.
The radar is relatively quiet now, but our forecast will highlight a good chance of showers and storms at times today, tonight, and tomorrow as the upper ridge is replaced by an anomalous, deep upper trough over the eastern U.S. in coming days. We still project average rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches during the next 36 hours, with some spots getting more than that. We also note SPC has a slight risk of severe weather defined today from Birmingham on to the northwest (see the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics); some of the storms later today will have potential for wet microbursts, but the main issue will simply come from heavy rain and lightning. Pretty much the same story tomorrow.
DRY AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND: The deep upper trough will bring dry air down into North Alabama tomorrow night, and we are still projecting a very nice mid-summer weekend, with sunny days, clear cool nights, and low humidity levels. The GFS continues to print lows around 60 degrees early Sunday and Monday, which is very close to record low territory. The record low for Sunday morning (July 19) is 58, set in 1984, and Monday’s record low (July 20) is 60 from 1947. Will be interesting to see if we can crash through those levels; we do expect lows in the 50s for the cooler valleys. A real preview of fall, and something you don’t see too often here in mid-summer.
NEXT WEEK: Monday remains dry, but the 00Z GFS tries to pull moisture back in here Tuesday and Wednesday. Let’s look at the 12Z run before we make any changes; previous runs looked dry all the way through mid-week.
GULF COAST WEATHER: A few showers and storms are likely today, tomorrow, and Saturday, but dry air moves in Sunday with sunshine returning in full supply. The forecast for the beach early next week is a little muddy due to inconsistent model output; the latest run of the GFS tries to spin up a small surface low south of Pensacola Monday, which could bring rain back to the coastal areas. But, other runs have looked dry through Monday.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!
