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RADAR CHECK: The new work week begins with quiet weather; we had some pre-dawn storms over North Alabama, but those have dissipated and the radar shows no rain around the state at daybreak.
But, in this moist environment, we expect showers and storms to fire up later today and tonight; like recent days they won’t move too much, and some spots could see heavy amounts of rain. The high today should hold in the 87 to 90 degree range.
TOMORROW: An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will push a surface front toward Alabama, and accordingly there should be a general increase in the number of showers and storms statewide. The high resolution NAM model is curiously dry, but other models look pretty wet and we will go with that solution. Sunshine will be limited tomorrow, and the rain could be heavy at times with some flash flooding issues very possible. We probably won’t get past the mid 80s.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Tricky forecast… the chance of rain will all depend on the placement of the surface boundary. A good chance that most of the day Wednesday will be rain-free along and north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden)… but we will keep a chance of showers and storms going over the southern two-thirds of Alabama. We will mention a chance of showers and storms statewide Thursday and Friday with an upper trough approaching from the west.
We have also seen hints of a tropical wave moving up through South Alabama into Georgia late in the week, but model consistency has not been very good with that feature.
OUR WEEKEND: While there is a chance that drier air could move in here, I am not ready to buy into that solution just yet. For now, we will continue to mention a chance of scattered showers and storms Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. We will fine tune that as the weekend gets closer; highs should be in the mid to upper 80s. A very good chance we won’t reach 90 degrees around here for the next seven days.
See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and details.
GULF COAST WEATHER: About 5 of 7 hours of sunshine today and tomorrow; then 3 to 5 hours of sun Wednesday through Friday. Each day a passing shower or storm is possible, with the more numerous storms coming over the latter half of the week. Highs along the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 86 degrees.
TROPICAL WEATHER: The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through tomorrow. Out in the western Pacific, Typhoon Utor is headed for China. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps and details.
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