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I think the forecast idea I threw out here yesterday afternoon is right on the money so far, and we will stick with that.
RIGHT NOW: While instability values are increasing over West Alabama where we have some breaks in the overcast, there is no mechanism to get showers and storms going. The morning impulse is off to the east, and the next one in the southern branch of the jet won’t be in here until well after midnight. So, we will just mention a chance of isolated showers from now until midnight; most spots will be dry.
TOMORROW: The next short wave will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to North Alabama mostly in the 3:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m. time frame. The models continue to show most of the storms over the Tennessee Valley region, mainly north of U.S. 278. However, they would develop southward down to I-20 if the lift is sufficient. And, there should be enough instability and shear for a few strong to severe storms. We all need to be alert for pre-dawn thunderstorms tomorrow… but the greatest chance of them will be north of Birmingham.
The storms will move on to the east, and drier air will blow in here on a gusty west wind during the day. The sky will be partly sunny during the afternoon, and with lowering dewpoints, temperatures should soar into the upper 70s. Parts of West Alabama might even touch 80 degrees tomorrow afternoon.
We will still have to watch for any thunderstorm development along the dry line over far East Alabama tomorrow afternoon, but it looks like most of that will happen over North Georgia.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: Lots of sunshine on these days with a high in the mid 60s Sunday, and low to mid 70s Monday.
NEXT WEEK: A dynamic storm system will impact Alabama during the middle of the week, and it still looks like the main threat of strong to severe storms will come in the period from 12:00 midnight Tuesday night to 12:00 noon Wednesday. We will have a much better idea of the impact on Alabama by Sunday and Monday, but it looks like this has the potential to bring a significant severe weather risk to the southern U.S.
THE LAND OF VOODOO: The GFS shows a chance of rain for Alabama on Saturday March 22, followed by a sharp change to colder weather on Easter Sunday, March 23. A really dynamic system shows up on March 28, but that is the first time we have seen that on the GFS. It might disappear on future runs.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
We will keep the blog updated with information on the Alabama thunderstorm situation through tomorrow… Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme video updates over the weekend; my next video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. Monday!
