Air Force recon found a central pressure of 987 mb at 11:13 p.m. CST tonight. This is the same central pressure as was measured three hours ago. Flight level winds were consistent with a Category One hurricane also, so the intensity is unchanged. Top winds are 75 mph.
The plane reports a complletely closed eyewall, 18 nm in diameter. So Paloma is a well organized hurricane, and this means further intensification is likely.
Paloma is now just 128 miles SSW of Grand Cayman. Movement is north at 8 mph.
The hurricane continues to look better and better on satellite photos and has a central dense overcast now. Convection appears to be increasing radpily near the center and a period of additional intensification should follow, after the levelling off we noticed during the evening hours.
The official intensity forecast is for Paloma to become a major hurricane late tomorrow night after passing the Caymans. But the official forecast anticipates some weakening before the center reaches the coast of Cuba early Monday as a low end category two hurricane or strong category one hurricane.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Caymans. Tropical storm force winds will be felt there in a few hours and strong tropical storm force winds will be experienced by early afternoon, with hurricane force winds beginning by late afternoon. The core of the hurricane could cross over the Caymans tomorrow evening.
We can only pray that the hurricane will jog a bit to the left or right and take the strongest winds to either side. The folks in the Caymans have been trough so much over the past four years.
It is interesting to note that the GFDL delays the weakening until the center is near the Cuban coast and keeps it a major hurricane right up until landfall, bottoming out the central pressure at 953 mb.
Tropical storm force winds will reach the Cuban coast by noon on Saturday with the center crossing Cuba between Cienfuegos and Camaguey Sunday evening. It will then cross the Bahamas on Monday, hopefully weakening to a tropical storm by then as upper level winds become unfavorable for the tropical cyclone to maintain its intensity.
Model track guidance is strongly clustered on a central Cuba landfall.
There will be two Air Force recon flights into Paloma on Friday. The first will leave station around 8:30 a.m. to start providing fixes around lunch time, with another flight scheduled to start giving fixes around midnight. There are three planned NOAA research flights around Paloma. Two are already flying their missions, and there will be one later today.
