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As expected, we have an array of scattered showers and thunderstorms on radar this afternoon… they first fired up during the lunch hour, and they will continue for the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. Where the storms develop, expect heavy rain, lots of lightning, and localized areas of strong wind. The NWS has issued one of their “significant weather alerts” for Jefferson County as I write this, for a storm that is in the Huffman/Roebuck area; this also has the potential to produce some hail.
We also note a more organized area of rain and storms just north of here over Tennessee, producing very heavy rain from north of Huntsville to Knoxville. Some flash flooding issues is likely up in that area.
IN THE DAYS TO COME: Not much change through the weekend; expect your typical mix of summer sun and storms, with most of the showers and storms coming during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will remain generally in the 87 to 91 degree range.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS is latching onto the idea of developing a stacked low to the northeast of Alabama by Sunday night and Monday, pulling drier air down into our state early in the week. If this solution is correct, most North Alabama communities will be dry Monday and Tuesday. But, caution Will Robinson, I would not trust this solution so far in advance.
TROPICS: Interesting little flare up in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico this morning, but a broad upper trough in that region is responsible for the disturbed weather, and we really don’t expect any serious organization. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Dalila is packing sustained winds of 50 mph well west of the Mexican coast. This system will remain offshore and will weaken by the weekend over open water, but some high altitude moisture will be blown up into the Southwest U.S., adding to the monsoon moisture pattern there.
LONG RANGE: The GFS develops a tropical storm east of Miami in the August 4-6 time frame… that, of course, is pure voodoo. Possible, but the GFS is famous for bogus tropical systems in the medium range period. Looks like our current weather pattern will remain pretty much intact through mid-August.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… J.B. Elliott will keep you updated on the ongoing thunderstorm situation this afternoon…
