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Be sure to watch the Weather Xtreme Video for a graphic on the rainfall from yesterday based on radar.
Moisture from all of the rain yesterday has produced patchy dense fog across much of the northern half of the state this morning. This fog should burn off by mid morning as it rises into a low cloud deck. But we should see some sunshine by late morning.
It appears likely that we will be seeing some subtle changes from day to day in our weather pattern but the overall, somewhat unsettled pattern will stick with us. The synoptic pattern continues to show a ridge to our west with a trough along the eastern US. This pattern wanes a little as the Bermuda high and the ridge to our west try to link. However, a strong trough moving throughout the Great Lakes on Saturday will keep a weakness in the upper air pattern over the Southeast US. This will produce a weak north to northwest flow which will continue to present issues for the development of thunderstorm clusters that could bring the threat for heavy rain. Models do not handle these small scale features well, so we will have to monitor conditions and provide forecast updates as development of any of these large clusters occurs.
Tonight and early Thursday a weak impulse moving through the flow is likely to bring a round of storms especially along the Georgia-Alabama border. After that we could see potential for severe storms across the southern half of Alabama as outlined on the Day 2 severe weather outlook from SPC.
With all the ground moisture from the thunderstorms yesterday, the NWS has posted a heat advisory for today with heat indices getting into the 105 to 110 range. While highs will be primarily in the mid 90s, the high humidity as evidenced by dew points in the mid 70s will keep the heat index high.
As the strong trough moves through the Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday, we could see a cold front dragged into the Tennessee River Valley which will produce some cloudiness and keep highs in the lower 90s. This will also be the focus for additional rain chances.
The tropics continue to heat up a bit with two areas under scrutiny. The one in the eastern Caribbean does not show much sign for development, however, the one about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands is moving into an area where conditions are somewhat favorable for slow development. There is always a concern to see an area of disturbed weather this far south plus we are have come into August when we begin to see the tropical Atlantic action begin to pick up as we head toward the climatological peak in tropical activity.
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I hope your day is a good one. The next Weather Xtreme Video should be prepared and posted by 8 am or so on Thursday morning. Godspeed.
-Brian-
