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Looks like perfect weather for the weekend with briskly cool mornings and mild to warm afternoons – picture perfect for Fall and whatever you’d like to do outside including football, camping, walking, watching the sky, or anything else. Looks like our high today should be around 80 degrees with an even warmer day in store for Sunday. We might see some locations get into the middle 80s on Sunday, too. It looks like it will be a cool start with Sunday morning lows in the upper 40s, but the rapid change ahead of the next system could affect those lows.
Our attention right now is focused on a deep trough coming through the western US. This is just the kind of thing we need to help with the drought conditions because it sure looks like it will bring a period of wet and unsettled weather to much of the Southeast US from Monday through Thursday. I’m optimistic on getting some good rain, but I have to admit that I am a bit conservative after the last system. Many things can happen, but we have some really good elements going for us. It looks like moisture will return quickly. The trough closes off AND moves very slowly. The trough is forecast to stay to our west and with a cold core system, it should keep the weather unsettled for several days improving the chances for nearly everyone to get some rain.
As always, the details are in the smaller scale which are difficult to forecast more than a day or so in advance, so we’ll watch the scene unfold, but it is looking reasonably favorable for a good shot of much needed rain. This particular system does not appear likely to produce any severe weather, but again details are in the mesoscale so we’ll be keeping an eye on conditions.
The Atlantic tropical basin is quiet. I noted a couple of areas of clouds on the wide satellite view, but nothing seems likely to develop anything over the next several days.
The closed low opens up on Thursday and ejects northeastware in response to a shortwave trough moving briskly across Canada. That should set the stage for us to have another cool and dry weekend as we near the end of October.
In the longer term, nothing especially noteworthy. The weather for Halloween is looking dry for Alabama and the Southeast US. A long wave trough is forecast to establish itself over the Central US by November 4th, but that is deep, deep into voodoo country. GFS keeps the tropics somewhat nervous, too, but that is just an observation.
I’m off to Winterboro this morning for the volunteer fire department’s community awareness day. Lot’s of Dave Baird fans in Talladega County. I hope you have a great weekend and enjoy some of the finest Fall weather we get. God bless.
-Brian-
