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I know much of the attention is centered on this week’s warmth, next week’s expected cold, and the January 13 storm system, but the truth is the drought is our big story, and we are looking at two rain opportunities this week; between those events there is a good chance many Alabama communities will see two inches of rain, and that is great news.
RIGHT NOW: We are approaching 70 degrees early this afternoon, a rather amazing turnaround from the single digit lows we experienced last week. The sky is mostly sunny around here and spring fever seems to be breaking out.
We should go up into the low 70s again tomorrow, but the day will be a little different in that winds will increase out of the south, and there will be cloudy periods as moisture levels continue to increase.We are still looking at a good chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm tomorrow night as the first short wave passes north of Alabama. A shower could break out tomorrow afternoon somewhere over West Alabama, but the models still show the best chance of rain coming at night, maybe even late tomorrow night. Severe weather is not likely with this feature with only marginal instability and weakening dynamics. Rain amounts of one-quarter to one-half inch can be expected.
Wednesday should be a mostly dry day for the northern half of the state, but the front will stall out near Montgomery, and a few showers will remain possible over Alabama’s southern counties.
MORE RAIN ON THURSDAY: Looks like the best rain event will come Thursday, when one to two inches of rain should fall with the second short wave. A few strong to severe storms could become an issue on Thursday, but the instability values on the 12Z GFS are not quite as impressive. We will certainly welcome the rain.
COLDER DAYS: The rain moves out Thursday night, and colder air begins to return on Friday with highs dropping back into the 50s. The trend toward colder weather will continue over the weekend and into next week. By Monday, we will have a hard time getting out of the 30s.
And yes, the 12Z GFS and the EWCMWF continues the idea of a surface low forming on the old surface boundary in the Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z runs have trended a bit northward, and we are still looking at some risk of snow flakes for North Alabama, along with rain for the southern part of the state. Remember, we have two waves to deal with during the short term, and it will be really difficult to get a good feel for the strength of position of the late weekend storm until Thursday night or so, after those waves are long gone. Lets take these one at a time… but the snow lovers certainly have some hope.
PEEKING INTO VOODOO LAND: The pattern looks colder than normal, and active through the rest of January. Looks like there will be some fun and games this month… so stay tuned. You can watch the Weather Xtreme video for some samples and possibilities.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a few episode tonight; it should be available around 10:00 or so.
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I will have the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
