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POTENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHAPING UP: While our weather stays quiet today and tomorrow, we will be watching developments to the west with great interest. Expect a sunny sky today here at home with a high in the low 80s, followed by mid 80s tomorrow. But, to the west, a major severe weather threat is shaping up tomorrow all the way from East Texas and Louisiana north to Missouri. A few severe storms could even fire up as far as Mississippi late in the day.
SATURDAY: Models continue to more aggressive with the severe weather setup for Alabama. The GFS now shows a strong surface low (near 1000 mb) near Little Rock Saturday afternoon, which will provide strong low level winds, with a strongly backed flow near the surface, which will set up very high helicity values (veering of the wind with altitude within the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere). A strongly diffluent flow will be in place aloft, and instability values will rise steadily during the day along with very respectable lapse rates.
The GFS is also faster with the system, and it now looks like severe storms could impact Alabama as early as Saturday afternoon. While some rain is likely Saturday morning, the main threat of severe weather in Alabama will come from about 2:00 p.m. Saturday until 2:00 a.m. Sunday. Based on forecast parameters, all modes of severe weather will be possible, and we could very well be dealing with a few particularly dangerous, long track tornadoes.
CALL TO ACTION: Since we have not had a major severe weather event in a long time, it is important to remember these things as we approach the weekend….
*Never rely on an outdoor warning siren to let you know a tornado is approaching
*Every home, business, and church in the state needs a NOAA Weather Radio. If you need one, you can pick them up at Publix and Handy TV under 30 dollars now. This is the best way to get the initial warning, then turn on ABC 33/40 to find out the details.
*You can get warnings on your home phone and cell phone with WeatherCall… get the details here. It is well worth it in a situation like this.
*Be sure you have a severe weather plan at your home and business. If you live in a mobile home, you must have a sturdy shelter identified and available. If you live in a site built home, pick the spot that is in a small room, on the lowest floor, away from windows, and near the center of the house, and be sure the kids understand where that spot is.
Please understand we don’t share this to alarm anyone; it could very well be that we just get a rainy/stormy day with limited severe weather, but when we have seen parameters like this in the past, we have indeed had major severe weather issues. It is always best to be prepared.
RACE WEEKEND: This is very problematic in that we will have thousands of campers around the Talladega Superspeedway this weekend. Everybody at the track needs to be aware of the magnitude of this severe weather risk, and campers will need to be ready to go to shelter long before the severe weather hits. A portable NOAA Weather Radio or WeatherCall will alert you to the watch/warning situation, and we recommend a portable digital TV receiver to watch ABC 33/40. Our digital signal from Bald Rock Mountain is the strongest available at the track.
Concerning the races, rain and storms are likely Saturday afternoon, and it will be a challenge getting the Aaron’s 312 in. But, the weather looks fine for Sunday’s running of the Aaron’s 499 with the sky becoming partly sunny. The high will be in the 70s Saturday, and close to 80 Sunday.
SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: The sky becomes partly sunny statewide Sunday as dry air takes over, and the weather looks generally dry for the first half of the week. Getting conflicting signals for the weather at the end of the week and the following weekend with model madness… see the Weather Xtreme video for details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open blog comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate method of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.
I am doing a weather program this morning at Walter Kennedy Elementary in Pell City… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
