Today turned out, for the most part (with the exception of some reported traffic accidents), a nice little winter weather event, with most spots over the northern half of the state at least seeing some sleet or snow, and areas just north of Birmingham getting a light accumulation. But, was this the main event many have been waiting for, or was it only a preview?
The 06 UTC NAM would certainly indicate that this was only a preview. It shows a vigorous surface low developing along the stalled front in the Gulf by Friday night, which moves toward south Georgia by Saturday morning. This time, it shows heavier precipitation and colder air, with 850 mb 0 C line already near BHM by midnight Friday night, with about an inch of liquid equivalent precipitation after that (that would mean 5+ inches of snow).
The Canadian GEM is similar to the NAM with the low track. It also has enough cold air for snow north of I-59, but shows lighter amounts (still healthy).
The UKMET keeps the low farther south, with only a dusting of snow in BHM and maybe MGM.
The NOGAPS keeps the low farther south, with very light precipitation reaching central Alabama (maybe enough for a dusting of snow).
The GFS keeps the surface low much farther south, with almost no precipitation north of Montgomery.
The track of the low will depend a good bit on where the front stalls in the Gulf…lows generally move along fronts. If warmer, Gulf air can stay closer to the coast, then our chances for snow Friday night and Saturday are higher. If not, maybe a dusting, or nothing at all.
Stay tuned…this one will be fun to watch.
