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What a difference 10 days can make. On this sunny, comfortable January afternoon all is calm in the weather office, but now that the Arctic air is temporarily gone, now we will have to deal with the active, El Nino enhanced southern storm track that will serve up two respectable systems during the next 7 days. Tomorrow we stay dry, although there will be a general increase in clouds, with a high up in the mid 60s.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The GFS continues to hint at some type of boundary/warm front moving northward through Alabama during the day Wednesday, so we will continue to mention a chance of showers. But, the heavier rain and thunderstorms will come late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, in the 12:00 midnight to 7:00 a.m. time frame. The sun might try to break out by midday Thursday, and if that happens the GFS is showing some healthy instability values by afternoon, and we might deal with one more line of storms before drier air sets in here Thursday night. See the Weather Xtreme video for details on this idea.
SPC has the far southwest counties of Alabama (basically Mobile, Baldwin, Monroe, and Washington) in a slight risk of severe storms for Wednesday night. And, we should mention rain totals from this system should be in the one to two inch range.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday will be dry and mild with a high in the mid 60s. Saturday, we stay dry, but a gusty south wind will kick in, and clouds should increase during the day. The 12Z run of the GFS continues the idea that Sunday will bring a healthy round of showers and thunderstorms, with potential for another 1 to 2 inches of rain. With excellent upper support and some instability, we could be dealing with a few strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday. SPC has the southern two-thirds of Alabama in a severe weather risk Sunday; let’s get through our mid-week system before we can really focus on this one.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: We turn colder Monday; looks like highs will drop into the 40s in the wake of Sunday’s departing storm system. And, see the Weather Xtreme video and understand the Arctic Oscillation begins another strong move down right about the time February begins, which is why we wonder if February will make us shiver. Winter is far from over.
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