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Today will remain warm and dry for most of Alabama. With a mix of sun and clouds, look for a high in the 80 to 85 degree range this afternoon. Of course we will continue to watch develops to the west closely. Yesterday sure was an interesting day; there were actually very few severe weather reports in the high risk area south and east of Dallas; the most significant tornado was the Eagle Pass, Texas storm on the Rio Grande that killed at least 9 people (six in Eagle Pass, and three across the border in Mexico), and injured over 70. With thunderstorms, expect the unexpected.
Today SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for all of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. That risk extends into far West Alabama for any storms that creep in here late tonight.
Tomorrow, a slight risk covers all of Alabama as the long awaited band of rain and thunderstorms moves in here. Wind fields will be a little weaker, and there are questions concerning instability values, which will hopefully prevent a major severe weather problem here. A quick peek at the 00Z NAM extraction does show the surface dewpoint up to 65 around here during the day tomorrow with the surface based CAPE values to near 600 j/kg.
We also note the 00Z GFS is a little faster with the system; it suggests the best chance of rain and storms could very well be in the 6:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. time frame. If the storms come through early enough in the day, that will also reduce the chance of significant severe weather.
The QPF graphic from HPC still suggests rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden. The bad news is that the NAM has backed off on the rain total; the extraction from the 00Z run shows only 0.46″ for Birmingham (it had over one inch for Birmingham on yesterday’s 12Z run). The GFS prints 0.60″ for Birmingham.
The rain and storms will move out of Alabama late tomorrow afternoon.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday looks like a fine day with a partly sunny sky and a high in the mid 70s. Another upper impulse will swing through here Saturday, but the moisture is very limited and I really don’t think rain will be a big problem. However, to be on the safe side, we have inserted a chance of widely scattered showers Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be light and spotty. That impulse will move east of Alabama Saturday night, and Sunday looks very nice with ample sunshine and a high in the upper 70s. A great day for the Aarons 499 at the Talladega Superspeedway.
LONG RANGE: The GFS really keeps the main westerlies up north during the first 10 days of May, but it does suggest occasional weakening cold fronts drifting down here providing the chance for rain and storms at times. That sounds like good deal since severe weather should not be a problem, but some decent rain is possible.
GLOBAL WARMING: Another scam from the Hollywood crowd and politicians, or a serious problem? What do you think? Let us hear from you over on our new forum at ClimateBrains.com. And, speaking of brains, check out this week’s WeatherBrains podcast on the web or on iTunes.
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I am headed to Gadsden this morning to speak to a senior adult function; I will be back in the office by early afternoon and will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30!
