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No doubt we will need to mention a chance of showers on a daily basis through Friday, but I am not convinced it rains all that much here. The NAM is printing 1.07″ for Birmingham during the next 84 hours, but the GFS is much drier at 0.32″. And, I have to wonder if the GFS is on the right idea; time will tell.
TODAY: The best chance of showers will be over the northern and western part of the state; those of you in East Alabama probably won’t see much rain at all. Today will be somewhat cool with a high between 59 and 64.
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: Again, we will mention a chance of showers both days. The GFS is mysteriously dry, and I don’t buy that with a nice upper trough to the west. But, instability values are marginal, and low level moisture values aren’t too impressive either. The cold front blows in here Friday, with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The GFS continues the idea of a convective mass in the northern Gulf, which could disrupt the inflow of moist air into this part of Alabama.
So… hopefully we will see one-half inch of rain through Friday, but I am afraid some folks will be disappointed in the rain totals.
COLD SATURDAY: A cold, deep upper trough will bring a sharp change to colder weather to Alabama on Saturday. We will struggle to get out of the 40s with an icy north wind. I would not be shocked to see a few snow flurries up in Tennessee, and maybe even down into extreme North Alabama.
The weather stays cool Sunday and Monday with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s; a freeze seems very possible early Monday with a clear sky and light wind.
VOODOO LAND: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the cold pattern has vanished again on the 00Z GFS around November 19-21; but who knows; it might show up again on the 12Z run we show you this afternoon. The latter part of November always offers some interesting weather, and one or two good cold shots sure seem likely considering the amount of cold air over the northern part of the continent.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up this Saturday November 15 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years), and learn from one of the most brilliant weather researchers in the country, our own Dr. Tim Coleman. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
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I have a weather program this morning at Helena Middle School; I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so. Have a nice day!
