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RIGHT NOW: Rain is falling over West Alabama, in a broad area from Reform and Northport north to near the Muscle Shoals area (see the ABC 33/40 radar on the right side of the blog), but everybody east of I-65 is dry. Pretty much in line with model output for today. The rain is in response to a vigorous upper low over Texas, which is producing heavier rain over Louisiana and parts of Mississippi.
Temperatures are mostly in the mid 60s across Alabama this afternoon; we note the cold air damming doing on east of the state over North Georgia, where temperatures are in the 50s. It is also cooler west of the state under the upper low thanks to dynamic cooling.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Periods of mostly light rain will continue, with the heaviest rain over the western third of Alabama. All of a sudden the NAM is much more aggressive with rain, showing 1.21″ for Birmingham through tomorrow night. The GFS is probably closer to the truth with 0.51″. The rain amounts will taper off a good bit as you head east… places like Anniston and Gadsden could wind up with less and 1/4 inch. The rain will end late tomorrow night or very early Thursday.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The sky becomes partly sunny Thursday as dry air moves in, with a high in the low to mid 60s. Then, the coldest air so far this season blows in here Friday. Despite a sunny sky, we will have a hard time getting out of the 40s, with a north wind of 15-25 mph making it feel colder.
THE WEEKEND: We are still projecting the first widespread freeze of the season Saturday morning, with most places seeing a low between 27 and 32 degrees with a clear sky and light wind. We note the average date of the first freeze here is November 9, so we are getting it a little early this year. Sunday morning could be just as cold as Polar air remains over the state. The sky will be sunny both days, with a high in the 50s Saturday, followed by low 60s Sunday. Absolutely no chance of rain.
NEXT WEEK AND INTO VOODOO LAND: We stay dry through early next week with a slow warming trend. Out in the longer range, model output is horribly inconsistent, and there is low confidence in any specific solution. The idea of some rain around November 11, and a major thunderstorm event November 16, is off the board now, at least based on the 12Z run of the GFS. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Tomas in the Caribbean is expected to become a minimal hurricane by Thursday, with a north turn over Haiti late Friday and Friday night. Then, the system moves northeast into the open Atlantic. It is no threat to the U.S. mainland.
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