The Tuesday afternoon ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available on the web in the player below, and on iTunes:
The forecast is working out pretty well; showers are increasing across Alabama this afternoon, and we will forecast a good chance of rain at times tonight along with the possibility of a few thunderstorms. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for much of West Tennessee and East Arkansas, where surface based CAPE values are now over 1,000 j/kg, and 0 to 3 km helicity values are over 500 in spots. But, around here instability is very limited and any major severe weather problems look unlikely.
The GFS continues to trend slower with this system, and it looks like we might want to hold on to a chance of showers through most of the day tomorrow, although the rain will be ending from west to east during the afternoon. Still looks like will have between 1/4 and 1/2 inch of rain; extraction from the NAM shows 0.33″ for Birmingham, while the GFS prints 0.52″.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Look out for spring fever. These days will feature a good supply of sunshine, with a high temperature around 70 degrees on both days. The models are hinting that Friday might be a tad cooler; but my only a few degrees.
On Friday a very potent weather system will begin to form over the western part of the nation, and has the potential to bring a major severe weather threat to the Plains and the Deep South over the weekend.
ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND: The 12Z run of the GFS still suggests the main impact of this system won’t be in here until Sunday. Saturday looks mild and windy with a high around 70 degrees. Most of the rain should remain west of the state until sometime late Saturday night or early Sunday, with thunderstorms will enter the western counties. We will highlight rain and thunderstorms on Sunday with a good potential for severe weather statewide. It is too early to determine if the main threat will come from a long squall line and damaging winds, or more cellular activity and the associated tornado threat. All we can do at this point is wait and watch; we need to get the system on the table later in the week and we can be more specific as we watch it organize on the east side of the Rocky Mountains.
NEXT WEEK: Looks like we will have a second round of strong to severe storms one week from today, on Tuesday February 27, as yet another very strong upper trough moves in our direction. And, if that is not enough, the GFS shows another severe weather look around March 2, followed by a very sharp change to colder weather. Looks like the 2007 spring tornado season is getting off to an early and aggressive start.
That means it is important to review the severe weather plan at your home and business this week, which is designated as Severe Weather Awareness Week by the NWS.
STORM ALERT 2007: We are looking forward to our visit to Jacksonville this Thursday, when our Storm Alert 2007 show comes to Jacksonville High School. We begin at 7:00 p.m,; the doors open at 5:00. Free t-shirts for the first 500 people, and we will be giving away 20 NOAA Weather Radio receivers during the show. Of course, you can meet our entire team. Ashley Brand is back in business after dealing with a case of the “walking pneumonia” last week.
WEATHER BRAINS: We have posted this week’s all new edition of WeatherBrains, our weekly 30 minute netcast. You can listen on the web, or via iTunes. Kevin Selle really did a great job with the new design of the WeatherBrains web site.
I had a wonderful time today driving into the heart of the Alabama Black Belt; I spoke to the 5th and 6th graders at Uniontown Elementary School this morning; look for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
