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What a beautiful sound that greeted my ears this morning as I was getting out of bed – rain drops falling on my roof. I do love having a roof over my head, but I also love that sound of rain falling. That’s a sound that we really have not heard much lately making it even more beautiful to my ears. Radar showed that much of the northern half of the state woke up to rain this morning while the southern half of the state remained dry.
The rain has come thanks to that pesky, persistent upper low that has been churning in the atmosphere over Texas and Oklahoma for the last several weeks. It has finally moved east some bringing with it enhanced rain chances for much of Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee. Of course, the “exceptional drought” area can really use it. Keep in mind that this will not break the drought. We’re still 17 to 21 inches below normal through the first of July for 2007, so a good soaking will only provide some temporary relief. But the relief is very welcome.
The upper low moves out all too fast but looks like it’s influence will stick around for much of today and Sunday keeping us cloudy with periods of showers. It does appear that some fairly widespread one inch amounts are possible over the next couple of days with isolated places receiving as much as two inches. The NAM generates about 1.39 inches while the GFS is a little more optimistic with 1.57 inches. As I said in the video, I think when I finish up here I’m going to amble onto the porch and watch the rain!!
Unfortunately all good things must come to an end. It appears that the pattern shifts back into a more typical scattered shower one as we get into next week.
But there is some more hope for rain on the horizon. The GFS continues to hold the trough over the eastern half of the country. And by Friday, a strong short wave is sliding down the western side of the trough with promises of deepening the eastern US trough and bring yet another front into the area. So this brings some additional prospect for rain next weekend. I know, rain a spoiler for another weekend, but we really need the rain, so perhaps we can overlook the timing.
Sampling voodoo land shows our pattern returning to a large ridge across the southern tier of the US. At the end of the cycle around July 22nd, the GFS is showing an extremely strong close low approaching the US west coast. If that strong low happens, it is likely to enhance the ridge over the Central US and bring another round of very hot weather. But that’s a long way out, so we’ll see.
I had a great time speaking to the Mensa group on Thursday morning. I always love the opportunity to talk to folks about weather, and they were very hospitable. I got to do some listening last night to Kathrn Tucker Wyndham, one of my favorite storytellers. Special thanks to Victoria Ashford, director of the Helena Library, for arranging such a special evening. And tonight I’m going to see Delores Hydock, another favorite storyteller. I sure feel luck with rain AND two great storytellers all in the same weekend!! I hope that you have a great weekend. God bless.
-Brian-
