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Again a big thank you to Brian Peters, Jason Simpson, J.B. Elliott, Bill Murray, and Ashley Brand for covering a variety of duties for me last week. Had to squeeze in one more vacation week before school begins (Wednesday in our district). I know many others have been out of town for the same reason; I hope everybody had a great week whether it was at the beach, in the mountains, or at a remote super secret family getaway location.
THIS WEEK: No doubt the trend will be for temperatures to come down, and rain chances to go up as the upper ridge is beat down, and replaced by an upper trough over the eastern third of the nation this week. Today and tomorrow will feature some morning sunshine, but a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will be in the 90 to 93 degree range, and the chance of any one neighborhood getting wet today and tomorrow is about one in three.
Showers and storms will become more likely tomorrow night into Wednesday with the approach of a surface boundary. Storms should die down late tomorrow night as they move into North Alabama, perhaps leaving an outflow boundary around here for the focus of new storms during the day Wednesday. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely between now and Wednesday, with potential for more in a few spots. We should stay below 90 on Wednesday due to clouds and showers.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The 00Z GFS is suggesting the surface front moves all the way down to near Clanton, putting the northern half of Alabama in dry air. Let’s hold off and look at the 12Z model runs before we make a clear call on this, but it sure seems the most active showers and storms on these days will be south of I-20, and there is some risk the northern counties could be totally dry. Fronts don’t make it through here in mid-August that often, but they sure have been doing it this summer.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: The front fizzles out, and moisture flows northward by Friday night, meaning a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday, with some sunshine away from the showers. The GFS suggests highs this weekend will be in the 87 to 90 degree range, which is below average for mid-August in Alabama.
AT THE BEACH: The weather will be a tad unsettled along the Gulf Coast this week; for the general area from Panama City to Gulf Shores, expect 3 to 5 hours of sunshine each day with the daily opportunity of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Seems like the showers and storms should be most numerous during the latter half of the week. Highs along the immediate coast will be in the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s for inland areas.
TROPICS: See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and details, but the wave in the eastern Atlantic seems to have a decent chance to become tropical storm Ana later this week, as it moves south of the Sahara Dust Layer and in an area of warmer SST (sea surface temperatures). The models are split; some turn it poleward for recurvature into the open Atlantic, while others keep it moving west/northwest. You can see on the video the 00Z GFS brings it to a point just east of Florida, followed by a northward turn later in the month, threatening the east coast of the U.S. One way or another this one does not seem to be a candidate to become a Gulf of Mexico storm. We will be waiting and watching; it is still a very long way away.
In the Pacific, weakening tropical storm Felicia will pass over the Hawaiian Islands tomorrow, with some wind and rain for the western half of the islands, but it basically will be nothing more than an inconvenience as the system continues to lose its punch.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new episode tonight; it will be available around 10:30.
FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….
| James Spann | Jason Simpson | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| Dr. Tim Coleman | E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
