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I hope your team did well, but mine did not – Florida State got smashed by Florida, so no babble about football. Let’s just get to the weather! And actually, the weather is pretty interesting.
Temperatures held steady overnight as evidenced by the temperature trace from my station in Helena. Sort of flat lined from about 4 pm yesterday until this morning with readings hovering around 49 and 50 degrees. And we probably won’t see much temperature change today with lots of clouds and patches of light rain or drizzle from time to time. The temperature should warm up nicely in Southwest Alabama where we expect the warm sector to invade and where the biggest threat for severe weather lies.
A surface low in the vicinity of Houston this morning will travel quickly northeastward into the Ohio River Valley by mid-day Monday. It appears that the warm front will stay pretty close to the Gulf coast where the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a slight risk for severe weather for today and tonight. As I mentioned yesterday, it does appear that instability will be limited for us in Central Alabama as far as a serious severe weather threat. The issue is always in the details, so we’ll be watching to see how far north the warm sector moves as the whole scenario unfolds. A pre-frontal line of thunderstorms should still give us some interesting weather with heavy rain possibilities.
The good news, though, is that we should end up with one to two inches of rain out of this system. That certainly won’t break our drought, but it will help a lot. Heaviest rain with this system is likely to occur along the Louisiana coast where up to 4 inches of rain is possible and where flash flood watches are posted today.
The front should sweep through here Monday afternoon clearing the air for a beautiful day on Tuesday. The Pacific origin of the air mass means that temperature should be fairly typical for late November.
Another good day is in store for Wednesday. Thursday will probably be dry but the GFS is bringing a weak front into the area. With limited moisture, most people won’t see any showers but I don’t think you can rule out a stray shower or two.
A new storm system in the Central US Saturday and Sunday as the Gulf opens up should bring another possibility for rain, but we’re edging into voodoo country. Further into voodoo land, the GFS is suggesting very cold weather along with a fairly active flow pattern with a new system about every three days or so. With a deep long wave trough situated over the East Coast, the possibility of some winter weather looms big, but I certainly am not going to try to make any solid predictions that far out.
Thanks for viewing/reading the Weather Xtreme Video post. I hope you have a great Sunday and get transition back to normal after a long weekend. James Spann should be back tomorrow morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. God bless.
-Brian-
