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RIGHT NOW: As I write this around 2:00, the leading edge of the rain associated with Ida is roughly along U.S. 80, or from Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika. Looks like the rain will reach the I-20 corridor by 5:00 p.m.
Tropical Storm Ida continues to make the transformation to a more broad, mid-latitude system. Doesn’t make much sense to worry about the dots on the tracking maps, since the wind and rain associated with this system is rather uniform, and covers a large area. Winds, as expected, aren’t overly impressive on the Alabama Gulf Coast right now; at the Jack Edwards Airport in Gulf Shores, the winds are out of the east at only 7 mph. We note that Greenville, over 100 miles inland, has a stronger east wind, averaging 13 mph. Winds over much of Alabama will be out of the east at 10 to 20 mph tonight and tomorrow; but they should be a littler stronger on the immediate coast late tonight and early tomorrow. Still, not enough to cause serious issues other than a few scattered power outages.
HOW MUCH RAIN? The 12Z run of the NAM is much drier; it is now printing only 0.44″ of rain for Birmingham. This is because that model turns the system due east right as it approaches the coast. With this scenario, there could be very little rain for areas north of Birmingham. But, the GFS is much more aggressive, showing 4.27″ for Birmingham. This reflects the uncertainly of a system that is changing from a tropical storm to a cold core, mid-latitude storm system, and also in the process of changing directions in about 12 to 18 hours.
I still think 1 to 2 inches are a good bet for our part of the state (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden). The axis of heaviest rain should be roughly from Mobile to Anniston; some spots could see 3 to 4 inches in that zone during the next 24 hours. The NWS maintains a flash flood watch, but thanks to the recent 9 day dry spell, I don’t anticipate anything other than localized flooding issues. The rain will taper off late tomorrow as the system moves on to the east.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Still looking at very nice weather these days, with mostly sunny days and clear cool nights. Highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s.
THE WEEKEND: The weekend looks excellent, with lots of sunshine Saturday and Sunday along with highs in the low to mid 70s; much like last weekend. The 12Z GFS brings in a short wave with a chance of showers or storms by Monday of next week; we will probably go ahead and adjust the forecast for that possibility.
VOODOO LAND: The one thing we don’t see for the rest of the month is any serious invasion of cold air. This, of course, is subject to change, but modeling has been pretty consistent in keeping the primary Polar jet to the north.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Tim Marshall joins us tonight; the show should be posted by 11:00 p.m.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
We will keep you posted on weather developments tonight as the rain moves in… my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow.
