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Looks like Central Alabama is about to embark on a relative wet period – at least Sunday should be. While most events in the summer tend to be hit or miss, it would seem likely that just about everyone will get some rain for the next 56 hours – just everyone won’t get the same amounts because of the showery/convective nature of the weather. Heavy rain is a real possibility with overall rainfall totals between one and two inches.
Today the seabreeze front is going to be active again which will bring numerous showers to the southern portion of Alabama. A cold front this morning near St. Louis will be a focus for storms well northwest of us. For much of Central Alabama, then, it looks like we’ll be primarily dry with just scattered, mainly afternoon and early evening storms to deal with.
That changes on Sunday as the cold front edges into the area. That along with the exceptionally deep moisture in place across the Southeast US, and I think we are in for widespread thunderstorms. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a large area from Central Alabama all the way to New England for the threat of severe weather on Sunday and early Monday (Day 2). I think our biggest threat is two-fold – damaging wind and the possibility for isolated flash flooding. With the deep moisture and precipitable water values running upwards of 2 inches, I think we could see isolated heavy rain occurrences which could produce localized flash flooding. Speed of movement of the storms will be a key factor, and at this time, it looks like the motion of storms will be fast enough to keep the flash flood threat to a minimum.
The cold front makes it through the area Monday with most if not all of the rain and storms south of Birmingham. Tuesday will see much drier air coming into the region – how about dew points in the upper 50s? That will feel nice.
The overall pattern flattens out as we get into the latter part of next week. There is also a weakness in the upper air pattern just to our west Thursday and into the weekend which will help to enhance shower chances in the Friday/Saturday time frame. By July 6th, the weakness and good tropical moisture once again could provide the stage for another relatively wet day with numerous storms – but that is verging on voodoo country.
Yesterday James pointed out the 594 height contour – the infamous heat bubble. Well, that doesn’t show up on this run. While that is gone, the trend of flattening the flow and raising the heat continues. Tropics also remain quiet.
Thanks to Kelli Guthrie for sending in a very colorful sunset/storm photo. We appreciate all of the submissions made by readers/viewers.
I’ll be heading out this morning for a safety fair at the Greater Saint John Missionary Baptist Church on Carlos Avenue this afternoon. Then, I’m off to Cheaha again but expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 9 am on Sunday morning. Have a great day and God bless.
-Brian-
