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WINDY CHRISTMAS EVE: Strong south winds could gust as high as 30 mph today, helping to push afternoon temperatures up into the mid 60s across this part of Alabama. While a few showers could break out today, the main band of showers and storms will push into the state tonight. SPC has dropped the slight severe weather risk for North Mississippi today; so we really don’t expect much of a severe weather risk tonight here in Alabama with hardly any surface based instability available. Rain amounts of 1/2 inch seem likely, with the most significant rain coming from about 6:00 p.m. this evening until 6:00 a.m. tomorrow.
CHRISTMAS DAY: We continue to put a positive spin on the forecast for tomorrow, calling it partly sunny with a high in the upper 50s. But, upon further review, I get the idea clouds will hang around most of the state, and we might even need to maintain some risk of scattered light rain, mainly along and south of I-20, as our surface front becomes parallel to the upper air winds and stalls out over Central Alabama. I am writing the afternoon forecast package today for J.B. and will probably make that adjustment if the 12Z model runs come in looking that way.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday will be a breezy and rather warm December day with temperatures soaring into the low 70s; there might be a few showers around, but they should be very isolated. Over the weekend, the best chance of showers and storms will come Saturday night with another weakening front pushing into Alabama. There is a risk of severe weather Friday night in the broad area from Dallas to St. Louis, and a risk Saturday over West Tennessee and West Kentucky, but the main dynamics lift well north of Alabama, and a major severe weather problem is not expected here Saturday night when the storms arrive.
The 06Z GFS is a little slower with the front, and we might have to keep some risk of lingering showers in the forecast for Sunday morning. Then, most of North Alabama should be dry Sunday afternoon through Monday. For now, the first half of next week looks dry and cool with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
2009: See the Weather Xtreme video for the latest NAO outlook and GFS output for the first 10 days of 2009. Still looks like a pattern flip, but way too early for any specifics or excitement. That time will come later.
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MERRY CHRISTMAS: I am very thankful for all of my associates here; we have a unique and very talented weather team that has worked hard to make this the “go to” site for weather information. All of our web metrics are at all time highs, and we thank you for taking the time to read and watch on a daily basis. On behalf of J.B. Elliott, Bill Murray, Dr. Tim Coleman, Brian Peters, Jason Simpson, John Oldshue, and Ashley Brand, we wish you a very Merry Christmas. I hope you and your family enjoy God’s richest blessings at this time of the year.
Remember, we are on a holiday schedule so this will be the only Weather Xtreme video today. We will be posting updates later today and tonight as the showers and storms form to the west and move through our state. And, don’t forget to track Santa over on the NORAD site!
