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Not much change in our thinking on this forecast package. Most of the day tomorrow will be dry; we will mention just an outside risk of an afternoon shower. The big show will come as we begin the weekend…..
SATURDAY: SPC maintains a severe weather risk on Saturday for most of Alabama. Showers and storms will headline the forecast, and based on the projected severe weather parameters we will need to be on the lookout for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Extraction from the 12Z NAM show a a surface based CAPE of 1200 j/kg here Saturday afternoon, with a lifted index of -4.3. Shear values have dropped a but on the 12Z run, but still sufficient for a few rotating updrafts. I really think they key to the severe weather potential will be what happens Saturday morning; if we have a large rain mass and clouds, then instability values won’t be too much and the severe weather risk will be minimal. On the other hand, if we get some good intervals of sunshine, it might be a very stormy afternoon.
Rainfall amounts of 1.0 to 1.5 inches are likely Saturday statewide. Getting lots of e-mail from folks trying to plan events Saturday… while I don’t expect an “all day” rain, it could rain at any time during the day, and there will be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Drier air returns Saturday night, and Sunday looks dry and pleasant with a high in the mid 70s. We do note that the 12Z GFS keeps showers going over the southern third of Alabama Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week will be dry with highs in the 70s; showers or storms will return toward the end of the week on Thursday or Friday.
TWITTER: Lots of questions about the mini-blogging platform, you can sign up on their site for a free account. Then, you can post short messages anytime to your followers (140 characters or less), and follow others. Just search for ABC 33/40 Television to find our Twitter feed. You can receive Twitter posts (tweets) via an instant message client, the web, or as a text message on your phone. We will hold off on putting severe weather warnings on our Twitter feed since E-Warn is available by county.
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I had a great time seeing the first graders today at Cold Springs School up in Cullman County; be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
