Thanks to Bill and Brian for their excellent posts below. This blog is giving you a real window into the forecast process. I sure wish I had something like this to read when I was as child growing up; I loved weather beyond belief but really had no way of learning this kind of stuff at that age.
See the Eurpoean output below for 500 mb (about 18,000-20,000 feet up) valid for next Friday evening:
I think this output is valid, and tells an amazing story of severe cold for much of the nation east of the Rockies. We are getting so caught up in the snow buzz that we are overlooking the other side of the story. I do believe for some parts of the nation this will be the coldest air seen since 1985. And, the pattern is blocked so we stay cold for at least a couple of weeks. Of course, there will be moderating periods, but we remain well below normal.
The model output statistics are horrible, and you simply can’t trust them. I know many other sources are forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s for the next seven days, but I completely disagree, and don’t understand how anyone can come up with that conclusion. Remember, most of those folks were forecasting highs in the 50s tomorrow, just a few days ago. Walk outside tomorrow and see if you can find 50s anywhere. As I have said many times, I am here to tell you what I think will happen… I am not here to make any one group of people happy, and I am not here to agree with a forecast from anyone else.
As for the snow issue, there will be multiple opportunities for snow or ice across parts of the southern U.S. during the next two weeks. I am still not ready to be specific, and I have not been specific in the past. It is just too early. I am afraid we have a large group that is looking at every computer model run like they watch a football game. What matters is the final score… and in this kind of pattern model madness will rule. We probably won’t be able to identify a good winter storm threat until we actually see the wave clearly on satellite images.
So… into the deep freeze we go tomorrow. And, we will all be awaiting the fun and games that follow. Stay tuned!
