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Really interesting day yesterday as showers were plentiful across Central Alabama. This was not a drought buster, though, as not everyone got rain. And some of us got very little rain. My gauge caught 2 hundredths of an inch – sort of a dust settler. But on radar I noticed that people just north and just south of me probably got a nice dose of rain with amounts around a third of an inch.
I don’t think the GFS is handling the current situation very well on the short term, so my confidence in the solution is very low. The unknown factor here is the weak cold front which seemed to be located in Northwest Tennessee and Northeast Arkansas based on dew points. But across Central Alabama dew points remained around 70. As long as we stay moist and we get good sun, I think we’ll see scattered showers again. The GFS MOS numerical guidance suggests a 1 percent chance of rain today. I just think it will be much higher than that. Let’s hope that some humble pie is not about to be served on MY plate.
By Sunday, I think we will see things dry out with a corresponding reduction in showers. But it is going to remain rather warm with highs in the lower 90s.
Over the upcoming week we will be dealing with an interesting situation. Since my confidence is not high in the initial GFS solution, it is certainly not high as we get out even just a couple of days. But the GFS shows a closed low in the Atlantic with a strong trough working its way down the east side of the ridge. The GFS does not show it having any significant impact on our weather, but if the GFS is off just a little perhaps that trough could bring us an enhanced chance for showers during the mid-week time frame.
So that feature will be something to watch to see if it develops and if it will have any effect on our weather. And in the longer range for which I have almost no confidence, the GFS gradually works back to a summer time pattern with the main storm track well to our north. Again, an interesting feature in the longer range is a weakness in the 500 millibar flow over the western Gulf. This could be a player if anything tropical develops, but the GFS was not showing anything of interest.
I’ll have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 9 am tomorrow morning. I hope you have a great weekend. God bless.
-Brian-
