Scattered Showers And Storms

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THIS MORNING: Moist air has moved back into North and East Alabama, and we will mention the risk of scattered showers and storms statewide. In fact, even as I write this before 6:00 a.m. we already have scattered showers over the western half of the state, and yet another MCS staring us in the face over western Mississippi. The global, synoptic scale computer models are little help in forecasting the timing and placement of the MCS train, so we will keep the chance of scattered storms going through the day into the evening hours. The high should be in the low 90s, but some places will fail to reach 90 due to clouds and convection.

TOMORROW: Still looks like showers will be few and far between tomorrow, with highs up in the low to mid 90s with a decent amount of summer sunshine.

THE WEEKEND: A strong upper trough will be setting up over the eastern part of the nation by Sunday night, and that will push a strong summer front through the state Sunday. Ahead of that front, no doubt we will have to dodge a number of showers and storms over the weekend. Timing out that rain is almost impossible to do, but we will mention the risk of a storm as early as Saturday afternoon, with some potential for the storms to be a little more active Saturday night into Sunday.

We have seen some evidence that the most widespread thunderstorm activity could be south of Birmingham by Sunday afternoon, but for now we will just mention scattered to numerous showers and storms on Sunday, and we can fine tune the placement as the weekend gets closer.

The high Saturday should be in the low 90s, followed by upper 80s Sunday. We also note that SPC has parts of North Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather late Saturday and Saturday night, so some of the weekend storms could be rather robust.

NEXT WEEK: A rather refreshing air mass will arrive Monday and Tuesday. Both days will feature a sunny sky, lower humidity, and cooler nights. I fully expect some of the cooler pockets over Northeast Alabama to reach the upper 50s by daybreak Tuesday. A nice hint of fall. Moisture slowly returns Wednesday and Thursday with some risk of scattered storms by then.

TROPICS HEATING UP: The NHC guys have drawn lots of circles on the TWO (tropical weather outlook), but the two to watch are the waves over the far eastern Atlantic. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.

The lead wave sure looks like a storm that will pass north of the Leeward Islands, on a path that leads to recurvature off the East Coast of the U.S. thanks to the deep upper trough over the Atlantic coast early next week. The trailing wave, that just came off the coast of Africa, has a better chance of being a low latitude system that might have higher implications for the U.S. But, it remains to be seen if it can survive being so close to the wave to the west. We will keep an eye on both of these in coming days.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!