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MUGGY DAYS: The models are spitting out relatively high POPs for Alabama tomorrow and Thursday, which you might expect with a moist airmass in place, and a stalled front just to the north. The NAM is printing 0.51″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is wetter with 0.86″. Of course, due to the scattered nature of the showers and storms, some spots will get more, some will get less. Bottom line is that we will maintain a chance of scattered to numerous showers and storms through Thursday with a high in the mid 80s both days.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: We still expect showers to thin out Friday as Alabama gets in the subsidence ring on the periphery of Ike, and the GFS hints that most of the weekend will be dry, with only a small risk of a shower Saturday and Sunday. The high will be close to 90 over the weekend with a decent amount of sunshine both days.
NEXT WEEK: Seems more and more like the moisture from Ike will pass north of Alabama, in the direction of Wichita, St. Louis, and Chicago. A cold front will move into Alabama Monday with a chance of showers, but for now the chance of a big rain event from Ike’s moisture looks small. Of course, that might change in coming days as we finally see how this storm will behave as it approaches the coast.
IKE HEADING FOR TEXAS: If anything, the 12Z models have shifted a bit to the right, or to the north. Still, the best model blend brings Ike into the South Texas coast, around South Padre Island, Friday night or Saturday morning. We note the GFS, the GFDL, and the HWRF are closer to Port Lavaca and Matagorda Bay. The official NHC track is in the direction of Corpus Christi. Everyone along the entire Texas coast will need to monitor the progress of Ike closely in coming days, even as far north as Galveston. While Ike has been south of model guidance and most forecasts through his entire life, you never know when the ole boy will bring a surprise.
Most intensity models bring Ike up to major hurricane strength at the time of landfall; some hint at category four status. This has the potential to be a very dangerous hurricane at the time of landfall.
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SAD: My long time friend Cliff Holman died yesterday. We knew this day was coming, but it is still a sad for for us old-timers. I will write more about Cliff here on the blog tonight.
I had a great time seeing everyone at Aliceville Manor Nursing Home this morning; a packed peanut gallery and very friendly people. I took the roads less traveled… through places like Mantua and Benevola. I saw four wild turkeys and a flying squirrel (no, I didn’t see Bullwinkle, however). I wasn’t quick enough to get shots of the wildlife, but I did take a few pictures that I will post tonight.
I will have the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
