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Another June day and shower chances remains with us. The old typical summertime forecast is in full force, and it would appear that those daily chances for storms will be with us for the foreseeable future. There’s even some significant heat on the horizon.
As the trough develops on the west coast of the US, the ridge will gradually grow stronger over the next several days. The ridge builds first to our west which puts us in a marginal northwesterly flow for the next couple of days. We will need to keep a wary eye on the development of mesoscale convective complexes to our northwest which could propagate in that flow into northern Alabama. Plus in the heat of the day, as we saw yesterday, a few thunderstorms could become strong to severe with hail up to 1 inch or so and damaging wind the main threats.
The ridge builds in pretty strong next week around Wednesday which sets the stage for about a week of very warm temperatures along with isolated afternoon thunderstorms – all just in time for the big City Stages event. I do not expect to see record highs – the GFS does not project anything over about 590 or so for the ridge – but it will be warm with morning lows not terribly cool – generally in the 70s.
As the ridge does build stronger over the weekend, our risk for strong to severe storms will shift back into the Central Plains.
In voodoo country, the GFS is coming up with a rather sharp pattern in which a closed low might get lost across the eastern third of the country. By lost, I mean it gets out of the westerlies and generally has little steering currents, so if that happens we could end the month on a wet, stormy month. But that is sheer speculation at the moment since we’re dealing well into the second week of the forecast.
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I hope that you have a great Friday. I am really having a wonderful week and weekend with my daughter spending a few days here. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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