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Forecast along with the weather pattern getting downright monotonous right now as the overall weather pattern changes very little. Between the surface high and the upper ridge, we are not expecting to see any significant changes over the next week or so. The upper ridge migrates a tad westward on Monday only to build back eastward on Wednesday. At that point there are some encouraging signs that the upper ridge may breakdown enough to bring slightly more showers – less isolated and more scattered with a bit more coverage – by the end of next week and into the weekend. This would certainly be nice with all the hot and dry weather we’ve been having giving us at least some hope of getting a shower.
Another record high was broken at the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport yesterday – 99 was the high breaking the old record of 95 set in 1998. Highs are expected to stay in the upper 90s for much of the next 5 to 7 days. Record high for today is 99 and for tomorrow 100 so we are not quite as likely to break the records though we may tie them – it is going to be close.
The GFS is suggesting a weakening of the upper ridge by Thursday and Friday of next week. This means a slight drop in temperatures – only a few degrees though – as well as the potential for more afternoon showers and thunderstorms. While this certainly does not mean that everyone will get wet, it does improve our chances for getting some rain.
With the main storm track to our north, the main severe weather threats remain across the northern tier of the US. Some threat does exist in the Southeast for isolated severe storms due to the steep lapse rate in the lower portion of the atmosphere. As we saw yesterday, one isolated shower in the vicinity of Tuscaloosa produced some wind and hail. So the threat of marginally severe storms where they develop will exist for the next couple of days.
Tropics are not too busy. One are in the Southwest Gulf is not expected to develop at all due to hostile upper winds. Over the Caribbean, slow development is possible as the conditions become more favorable for development during the next 48 hours.
Peeking out further into voodoo country, the GFS still holding the promise of breaking down the ridge toward the end of the period – June 17th or 18th. I’m certainly pulling for that solution, but the GFS has been promising it for a week now, so we’ll see.
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Did a bit of the tourist thing in Chattanooga yesterday and took in Ruby Falls. Loved the temperature in the caves and the falls were spectacular. Might be doing more touristy things today with the Tennessee Aquarium high on the list of possible choices. Have a great day and be sure to stay hydrated in this heat. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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