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Lets all take a deep breath and take a look at the Alabama weather situation. We stress that severe weather parameters will be maximized west and northwest of Alabama, but there is a significant severe weather threat tonight for our state, especially west of I-65.
RECORD WARMTH: Temperatures at 2:00 include 79 at Tuscaloosa and 75 at Birmingham. Our Skywatcher in Livingston reports 82, while our Skywatcher in Coker, west of Tuscaloosa, is at 80 degrees. Dewpoints are in the 60s at all sites, and surface based CAPE values are over 1,000 j/kg over much of West Alabama. This is like sitting on a power keg….
TO THE WEST: A PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) tornado watch is now in effect for much of Arkansas and North Louisiana. Tornado warnings are in effect for Jackson, Lincoln, Union and Ouachita parishes in Louisiana; a tornado was indicated on radar east of Ruston. There will be many more tornado warnings during the next 12 hours to the west. We will be watching developments closely as a high risk of severe weather remains up from Arkansas northward into West Tennessee, Northwest Mississippi, Southeast Missouri, and the western tip of Kentucky. See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this discussion.
RIGHT NOW IN ALABAMA: A few small showers have formed within the last hour over Alabama, but they are isolated, are are having a hard time due to the capping inversion in place. 700 mb uvvs are still not very high across our state; the main dynamic forcing is still to the west, where the severe weather watches are in effect.
THIS EVENING: As the storm system to the west gets closer and upward motion improves this evening, severe storms could erupt over West Alabama, generally in the 5:00 to 9:00 p.m. time frame. There is sufficient instability and helicity for rotating updrafts and a few tornadoes, especially along and west of U.S. 43 at the onset of the storms. The severe weather risk will shift eastward later tonight, and a few isolated tornadoes are possible as far east as I-65 by 8:00 or 9:00. Again, watch the video for the graphics.
LATE TONIGHT: We expect the activity to evolve into long squall line late tonight, which will move through Alabama in the 12:00 midnight to 9:00 a.m. time frame. The primary risk along this line will be from damaging straight line winds, although a few isolated small tornadoes cannot be totally ruled out.
TOMORROW: Rain and storms will move out of Alabama by midday, and cooler air flows into the state. We will be close to freezing by Thursday morning.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: The weather will be rain-free on these four days; we will warm into the low to mid 60s on Friday, but cool down again over the weekend as a new surge of colder air drops in from the north. We will have a hard time getting out of the 40s by Sunday.
NEXT RAIN: Looks like the next rain event will come late Tuesday or Wednesday of next week….
STORM ALERT 2008: We will be in Anniston Thursday night… the show begins at 7:00 at the Anniston City Meeting Center; the doors open at 5:00. Bring the whole family and meet our team and learn more about Alabama weather. We have some really good Alabama severe weather stories this year, and a special guest that will have a powerful message.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
Thanks to everyone our at Briarwood Presbyterian Church for the great hospitality today… what a great crowd. J.B. and the gang will have running updates on the severe weather threat through the evening hours… my next planned Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow. And, needless to say, if tornado warnings are issued for our market area, we will be on ABC 33/40 tonight, both on TV and the live stream….
