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ACTIVE WEATHER DAY: The radar is quiet at daybreak this morning, but we are keeping an eye on an MCS (mesoscale convective system) to the northwest of our state, with severe storms in progress around Memphis. These storms could very well fizzle out shortly, but new storms will develop on the outflow of this activity later today, and that is what we will have to watch for here in Alabama.
Most models suggest we will rise into the 92-95 degree range early this afternoon, which make the atmosphere very unstable (surface based CAPE values over 4,500 k/kg). This, combined with colder air aloft with a developing eastern U.S. upper trough, and an approaching surface front, will bring a good chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and early tonight.
SPC has basically all of Alabama, with the exception of Mobile and Baldwin Counties, in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather this afternoon and tonight… the main risk will come from strong straight line winds that could knock down trees and power lines in spots. Some small hail is possible, and of course, all summer storms pack an amazing amount of lightning (most of you enjoyed the light show last night). The main window for severe storms in Alabama is from 12:00 noon until 8:00 p.m. The initial issue will come up north, over the Tennessee Valley, during the midday hours, and those storms will move slowly to the south as the afternoon progresses.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Sure get the idea that the weather will be calmer and drier for much of North and Central Alabama as the surface front moves south of here. Any showers should be few and far between tomorrow and Sunday… both days will feature a partly sunny sky. The high tomorrow will be around 90, but cooler air drops in here Sunday as the high will be in the upper 80s.
NEXT WEEK: Pretty remarkable; it looks like we will fail to reach 90 degrees all week; highs will be limited to the mid 80s thanks to a deep upper low just north of Alabama. In fact, on a day or two some places up in the Tennessee Valley might not get out of the 70s. There will be enough moisture for a few scattered showers; the GFS hints that the coverage of showers and storms will increase around Thursday (Independence Day) and Friday as deeper tropical moisture moves north.
GULF COAST WEATHER: A fairly deep layer of tropical moisture will be in place, so each day you will have to dodge a few showers and storms on the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through the weekend on through the Fourth of July. We figure most places will see about 4 to 6 hours of sunshine a day, and highs will be in the mid to upper 80s along the immediate Gulf Coast. Sea water temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s.
TROPICAL WEATHER: The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.
BLAST FURNACE: I do weather on the radio in Phoenix, and I am forecasting a high today of 119…. that is within a few degrees of their all time record high of 122. Las Vegas will be up in that same zone… this is under a strong upper ridge our west, and we can be thankful for the cool upper trough that will affect Alabama next week.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video by 4:00 this afternoon, weather permitting (we might be in severe weather mode by then)… enjoy the day!
