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Looks like our weather will remain relatively quiet through Sunday. We will see cloudy periods tomorrow and Saturday, but the chance of significant rain is very small. A weak cold front will ease through tomorrow night, but with little moisture most communities will remain dry. Afternoon temperatures will back off just a few degrees on Saturday, but most folks won’t notice the difference.
LOOKING AT SUNDAY: The 12Z GFS continues to trend toward placing the surface low of the developing storm system north of Alabama, putting the state in the warm sector. The dynamics look very impressive; an 850 mb jet well in excess of 50 knots (this is around 5,000 feet off the ground), 500 mb winds in excess of 100 knots (around 18,000 feet), and lots of directional shear. Looks like instability will be sufficient for severe storms over the southern two-thirds of the state, and maybe even all the way north to the Tennessee state line. The upper trough supporting all of this will be phasing with a northern stream trough, and going negative tilt.
At this point it looks like the greatest risk of severe weather in Alabama Sunday will come from about 12:00 noon until 9:00 p.m. Keep in mind we are still several days out from this event, and the timing could change. This is a good time for all church pastors and administrators to review their severe weather safety plan, and be sure their NOAA Weather Radio receiver is in good working order. Just in case…
ANOTHER COLD SHOT: Monday of next week sure looks cold; much like yesterday. The GFS MOS shows a high of 50 for Monday; I think the high will be closer to 39. And, like yesterday, there could be a few morning snow flurries. A hard freeze is likely by Tuesday morning.
LONG RANGE: The pattern still looks very active through the rest of the month, with at least two more good rain/storm events on the horizon during the next two weeks. We just can’t time out those events far in advance, but you can watch the Weather Xtreme video for more of a glance into voodoo land.
STORM ALERT 2008: Don’t forget, our show this week was on Tuesday night, so there is no Storm Alert 2008 program tonight. One week from tonight, Thursday February 21, we will be in Clay County at Lineville High School (the show begins at 7:00).
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.
I had a great time today speaking to the first graders at Crestline Elementary in Mountain Brook… be watching for them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 today. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
