An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
Quite a complex and interesting forecast through Sunday.
First… we are watching the radar, and so far no sign of any thunderstorm development across our state. Temperatures are well below our forecast levels, and accordingly, the air is not as unstable. So, there is a decent chance we will make it through the evening with no severe weather worries, although SPC maintains a slight risk for the northern part of the state. Of course, we will keep watching the radar. A weak short wave could trigger a storm sometime between 6:00 and 10:00, but a layer of warm air aloft might keep a lid on that possibility.
THE WEEKEND: Still looks like our primary risk of severe weather will come from about 9:00 tomorrow night through 9:00 a.m. Sunday. While some extreme instability shows up late tomorrow afternoon (CAPE values over 3,500 j/kg), the best dynamics won’t come into play until after dark. While all modes of severe storms are possible, it is likely that all of the storms will evolve into a QLCS during the pre-dawn hours Sunday with the greatest threat shifting to damaging straight line winds.
Everyone needs to be ready for a late night/early morning severe weather outbreak, and have a way of hearing tornado/severe thunderstorm warnings in case they are needed.
We believe all of the storms will be into Georgia by late morning Sunday based on the 12Z model runs.
SPC has a moderate risk of severe weather in place for late tomorrow and tomorrow night from Northeast Texas/Southeast Oklahoma, eastward into West Alabama. A slight risk covers the rest of Alabama.
Rain totals of one-half to one inch look likely over the weekend, with isolated heavier amounts.
We are still early in the game, and the details could change, so stay tuned to the blog over the weekend for the latest on our thinking.
NEXT WEEK: Drier air sets in here Sunday night, and beautiful spring weather is likely Monday and Tuesday with ample sunshine and comfortable temperatures. Looks like we will see some spots down in the 40s both early Monday and Tuesday morning. The next chance of showers and storms will come Wednesday night, possibly into Thursday. And, those storms could be very healthy if the GFS is correct. We can focus more on that early next week.
VOODOO LAND: The 12Z GFS shows a summer-like pattern developing after May 20 with the main jet action shifting to the north. This will leave Alabama in a warm and humid airmass with a few scattered afternoon storms around. Get used to that… summer is almost here, you know.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
Stay tuned to the blog for updates on the Alabama weather situation over the weekend!
