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A number of weather parameters will come together today for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms across Alabama. Based on model output and radar trends, we will need to adjust the timing for the main window for severe weather; looks like the greatest chance of severe storms will come from 12:00 noon to midnight.
Here are some projected severe weather parameters for this afternoon from the NAM:
Surface based CAPE 1803 j/kg
LCL 574 m/agl
EHI 2.20
STP 2.12
0 to 3 km helicity: 377 m2/s2
For some of you, that is all gibberish; get help with the convective parameters here.
WHAT TO EXPECT: Initially, we should see a few discrete supercell storms forming over Alabama this afternoon; some of those could feature rotating updrafts and the chance of isolated tornadoes. Seems like the best environment for these storms will be west of a line from Scottsboro to Birmingham to Clanton, where the air will be more unstable.
Then, tonight, all of the activity should roll over into a squall line that could producing damaging winds. That line of storms should weaken after midnight as the air becomes more stable.
THE WEEKEND: Rain and storms will end tomorrow morning, followed by gradual clearing tomorrow afternoon. Sunday looks like a wonderful day with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the mid 70s.
NEXT WEEK: The latest run of the GFS hints at a chance of showers late Tuesday or Wednesday with a weakening front. The GFS is now showing a strong upper trough at end of the week (one week from today) with potential for severe weather. Lots of waffling on this, but we will feel much more confident on this forecast by Monday.
VOODOO COUNTRY: The GFS also still shows the potential for a late season cold snap around April 17… but the last few runs have been a tad warmer, lessening the risk of frost or a freeze for the colder spots. This, of course, is pure voodoo at this point; lets get within seven days of the event and we will have a good grasp of the situation.
PINPOINT DOPPLER RADAR: A crew is scheduled to be up on Double Oak Mountain this morning to get our radar back in service; one way or another you can see radar anytime on our live stream, just access that from the main ABC 33/40 Weather page. While our radar is down this morning, you will see NEXRAD data. And, of course, in the event of a tornado warning, we will put our long form weather coverage on the stream.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
PRIME TIME TV SPECIAL: Join ABC 33/40 on the occasional of the tenth anniversary of the April 8, 1998 F5 tornado for a prime time weather special. The show will air from 6:30 until 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, April 8; for one hour we will look back at this historic storm, through the eyes of those that covered the storm for ABC 33/40, and those in the path of the storm who survived. We will also be going to a live memorial service at Open Door Church, one of the many churches who lost their building that horrible Wednesday night.
I was scheduled to speak at the annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium today at Mississippi State University; unfortunately I am not able to make the trip due to the severe weather threat. Hopefully I can get over there tomorrow; that is always a great meeting of weather “geeks”, both on the college level and among professionals.
We will have updates through the day here on the blog, so stay tuned. I doubt if we are able to get an afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted due to ongoing weather; Brian Peters will have the video updates here over the weekend.
