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Our weather still looks mostly warm and dry through tomorrow. The wave that produced the severe weather over Texas last night will pass north of here; it might warrant a slight risk of a shower tonight, but the risk looks so small at this time it really doesn’t warrant a mention in the forecast.
We will mention a chance of widely scattered showers tomorrow afternoon, but with little dynamic forcing it looks like they will be few and far between.
THE WEEKEND: A cold front will drop down into Tennessee Saturday and become stationary; this will bring a chance of scattered showers and storms to Alabama. The best coverage should be over the northern third of the state (north of I-20), and even there the day won’t be a wash-out.
We will maintain the chance of scattered showers and storms Sunday, but it looks more and more like the primary window for organized thunderstorms will come Sunday night, as a stronger cold front with very good upper air support sweeps through the state. In fact, the 00Z run of the GFS is now showing a look that would suggest the potential for severe storms around here Sunday night, with a deepening surface low over Kentucky, SBCAPE values over 1,500 j/kg, dewpoints well up in the 60s, and a decent amount of shear (both speed and directional). We will monitor trends in cominf days.
RACE WEEKEND: The chance of a shower at the Talladega Superspeedway is about one in three Saturday and Sunday; I really don’t think rain will be a big problem. The chance of a shower is smaller tomorrow for qualifying. Sunday night could be problematic when everyone is trying to leave and strong storms move in.
NEXT WEEK: The weather turns cooler next week. The rain should end early in the day Monday, followed by a clearing sky. The latest GFS MOS has dropped our high Monday to 66, with a low Tuesday morning of 42. We might have to watch for some scattered light frost for the coldest valleys of North Alabama early Tuesday, but this should not be really harmful to plants (based on what we see now, and climatology for this time of the year).
VOODOO LAND: The GFS shows a decent rain producing system around May 7, otherwise the weather looks fairly benign in the medium range period.
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I will be speaking at Shades Mountain Christian School this morning, and then I will be with a big group of realtors at lunch. I will return to the office early this afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
