For extreme NW Alabama including Colbert, Franklin and Lauderdale until 8 a.m.
SPC Discussion…
DISCUSSION…SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN A ZONE FROM NORTHERN MS INTO WESTERN KY. DESPITE DRY/STABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS…SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS.
New Experimental ProbabilityTable
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007
WS 0040
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%
&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO
ADDITIONAL NOTES…
at 1:10 am…at Jackson [Madison Co, TN] trained spotter reports HAIL of half dollar size (M1.25 INCH) at 01:00 AM CST — half dollar size hail.
